The Gravity Report
THE 644
1 JOKIĆ 97.8 · 2 GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER 92.9 · 3 WEMBANYAMA 85.7 · 4 ANTETOKOUNMPO 83.9 · 5 DONČIĆ 83.0 · 6 LEONARD 77.3 · 7 CUNNINGHAM 70.3 · 8 TOWNS 69.3 · 9 MITCHELL 68.1 · 10 MAXEY 67.3 · 11 BALL 66.8 · 12 HOLMGREN 66.6 · 13 CURRY 66.5 · 14 DUREN 65.9 · 15 BARNES 65.8
Deep Dive №5 · Preseason 2026–27

Chasing Seven

By our model, Jokić has been the best player in the league for six straight years, at a higher level than Jordan or LeBron. One more would tie Jordan's record. We give it 55%.

We ran every NBA season since 1977–78 through GRAVITY Historical and asked who was the best player each year. Michael Jordan held the title seven years in a row. By our metrics, Nikola Jokić has now held it for six, and his six were played at a higher level than Jordan's seven or LeBron's six.

The MVP voters have only agreed with 24 of our 49 number ones, and Jokić has lost three of his six. A seventh straight year would tie Jordan's record in our data. We give it a 55% chance.

Read the article 5 pages · web and PDF · Oct 17, 2026
The 644 · July 2026 edition

Every NBA player, one number

How good, times how often. Next edition at the All-Star break.

  1. 1Nikola JokićDEN97.8
  2. 2Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC92.9
  3. 3Victor WembanyamaSAS85.7
  4. 4Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA83.9
  5. 5Luka DončićLAL83.0
  6. 6Kawhi LeonardTOR77.3
  7. 7Cade CunninghamDET70.3
  8. 8Karl-Anthony TownsNYK69.3
  9. 9Donovan MitchellCLE68.1
  10. 10Tyrese MaxeyPHI67.3
See all 644 players
The Forecast Ledger

Every call, on the record before the season

Each forecast gets a probability before tip-off and a grade after the season. No deletions, no edits, no quiet revisions.

12open
0graded
Aprfirst grades, 2027
D1Jalen Duren stays top 15 in The 644#16–20 near miss (graded as a miss)80%grades 2027-07
2Neemias Queta finishes top 50 in The 64475%grades 2027-07
E1The 30 team ranking calls the standingsSpearman ≥ 0.60 vs final 2026-27 wins75%grades 2027-07
K5Kawhi's true shooting falls below .610He shot .629 last season. Void under 1,000 minutes65%grades 2027-04
D3Duren posts the best BPM among traditional centerscenters with a three-point rate under 10%, 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference60%grades 2027-04
J2Jokić leads the NBA in Box Plus/Minusplayers with 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference60%grades 2027-04
K4Kawhi's usage stays at 30% or moreVoid under 1,000 minutes60%grades 2027-04
J1Nikola Jokić stays #1 in The 644#2 near miss (graded as a miss)55%grades 2027-07
K1Kawhi Leonard stays top 8 in The 64450%grades 2027-07
2bQueta finishes top 25 in The 64440%grades 2027-07
K3Kawhi finishes top 8 in Box Plus/Minusplayers with 1,500+ minutes, Basketball Reference30%grades 2027-04
J3Jokić wins the 2026–27 MVP25%grades 2027-06
See the full ledger and grading rules

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