The Gravity Report
THE 644
1 JOKIĆ 97.8 · 2 GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER 92.9 · 3 WEMBANYAMA 85.7 · 4 ANTETOKOUNMPO 83.9 · 5 DONČIĆ 83.0 · 6 LEONARD 77.3 · 7 CUNNINGHAM 70.3 · 8 TOWNS 69.3 · 9 MITCHELL 68.1 · 10 MAXEY 67.3 · 11 BALL 66.8 · 12 HOLMGREN 66.6 · 13 CURRY 66.5 · 14 DUREN 65.9 · 15 BARNES 65.8
Deep Dive №4 · Preseason 2026–27

The Kawhi Anomaly

The biggest rebound ever recorded by a 34-year-old.
Francesco Freedman · The Gravity Report · the GRAVITY player-value model · published October 6, 2026 · forecasts score April and July 2027
Not a research paper. This is an article, typeset in LaTeX: independent analysis, not peer reviewed.
v1 — methodology and figures verified against public sources as of October 6, 2026. This article will be revised.
Relabeled October 8, 2026: the series is now called Deep Dives (it was Articles), because The Gravity Report now publishes two formats, Deep Dives (long, with the full method) and Articles (short). Same number, same address. No numbers, findings, or forecasts changed.
Abstract. In the 2024–25 season, Kawhi Leonard played 37 games and was graded as a good starter. In the 2025–26 season, at 34 years old, he played 65 games and was graded as the 5th best player in the league per minute. His jump in impact score (+1.31) is the biggest one-year gain ever recorded by a player 34 or older, and he is the only star since 1978 to set career highs in usage and true shooting in the same season after 33. Late surges have an unkind history. Only eight players have surged to star level after 31. None of them kept ¾ of that gain, and the median kept almost none of it. Leonard's surge came in two parts, taking on a heavier role and hotter shooting. Both of those parts age differently historically. When we rebuild his season piece by piece, we predict an impact of +1.31 next season, roughly a top-ten level, which means he keeps about a third of his surge.

What's in the article

  • The scale, in plain terms: an impact score measures how much a player helps per minute compared with an average NBA minute. Zero is average; +0.6 beat 80% of rotation players last season, +1.3 was roughly a top-ten player, and only five players reached +2.0.
  • Two records: the biggest one-year jump ever by a player 34 or older (+0.86 to +2.17), and the only star since 1978 to set career highs in usage and true shooting in the same season after 33.
  • What happens to late surges: eight players surged to star level after 31. None kept three-quarters of the improvement the next season; Steve Nash kept the most, 45%.
  • The anatomy: his bigger role is the kind of change that usually lasts. His hot shooting, a career-high 52% from mid-range per Cleaning the Glass, is the kind that usually fades.
Page 2 of the article: the eight players who surged to star level after 31 and how much each kept the next season.
Late surges (p. 2). Every player since 1977–78 who surged to star level after 31, and how much of it was still there a year later.
Page 3 of the article: Kawhi's season part by part, how reliably each part carries over, and the 2026–27 forecast.
The anatomy of the surge (p. 3). Each part of his game, how reliably it carries over for players 31 and older, and what we expect next season.

The forecast

Kawhi Leonard ranks top 8 in The 644, July 2027 edition.
50%
#1–8 = Win · #9 or below = Miss. Our own ranking; we keep one bet on it each article so the model gets graded too.
Kawhi Leonard finishes 2026–27 top 8 in Box Plus/Minus among players with 1,500 regular-season minutes.
30%
Basketball Reference, final regular-season table.
Kawhi Leonard uses 30% or more of Toronto's possessions in 2026–27.
60%
The part of his surge we expect to hold. Void under 1,000 minutes.
Kawhi Leonard's true shooting falls below .610 in 2026–27.
65%
The part we expect to fade. He shot .629 last season. Void under 1,000 minutes.

The thin line marks 50%, a coin flip. Public-stat bets are graded on Basketball Reference by April 30, 2027. Registered October 6, 2026; scored by Brier score in the Forecast Ledger.

Read the full article (PDF, 5 pp) Read it in the inbox LaTeX source The Forecast Ledger

Cite this article

Freedman, F. (2026). "The Kawhi Anomaly: The Biggest Rebound Ever Recorded
by a 34-Year-Old." The Gravity Report, GRAVITY Deep Dive No. 4, v1.
https://thegravityreport.com/notes/kawhi/