The Gravity Report

The Gravity Report is an independent NBA analytics publication built around GRAVITY, an original player-value model that explains careers, identifies mispriced players, and publishes falsifiable forecasts. No sponsors, no aggregation, no reaction content — numbered research notes, typeset in LaTeX, built on a model whose every equation is public.

The rules this publication runs on

• Notes are permanent. Once a research note ships, it stays. Only the model gets revised, and every revision is versioned in public.
• Every forecast is registered. Probability, thresholds, and what counts as being wrong — written down before the season, in the Forecast Ledger, never edited afterward.
• Everything gets graded. The annual Forecast Audit scores every registered call: win, near miss, or miss. The first audit runs in July 2027.
• Mistakes stay visible. Corrections are published as revision notes on the papers themselves, and errors live permanently in Deleted Items — including the ones that made our numbers worse.
• No opinions borrowed. No external rankings or projections are ever consulted. Reputation is not an input.

The model, briefly

GRAVITY asks two questions about every player: how good is he per minute on the floor, and how much of that can a team actually count on. The two multiply. A per-minute star who misses most of the season lands well below his talent level, on purpose. Every player in the league is graded by the same formula — the weights are specified before anyone is ranked, published in full, and stress-tested in the papers' sensitivity appendices.

THE SCALE
  50   league-average minute
  60+  quality starter
  80+  franchise engine
  97.8 Nikola Jokić (2025-26 max)

The complete mathematics — all seven component constructions, every weight, the shrinkage rules, the full injury-override table — is a standalone citable document: The GRAVITY Specification. (GRAVITY the player-value model is unrelated to the NBA's defensive-attention "gravity" statistic. Different quantity, different purpose.)

Why it looks like 1999

Research notes are letters: numbered, dated, permanent, addressed to anyone who takes basketball arguments seriously. An inbox is the honest interface for that — nothing trends, nothing autoplays, the archive is the product. Predictions age in the Outbox. Drafts are voted on by readers. The trash is part of the methodology.

Where to start

• What is GRAVITY? — the two-minute version, pinned at the top of the inbox.
• Research Note №2 — The Queta Problem — the live bet: 75% that Neemias Queta finishes 2026–27 a top-50 player, graded next July.
• Research Note №1 — The Rise and Fall of Ja Morant — seven seasons measured with one instrument.
• The 644 — every NBA player plus the 2026 draft class, one number each. Editions are permanent; the next arrives at the All-Star break.

Who makes this

Written, modeled, and maintained by Francesco Freedman. The publication is deliberately small: one author, one model, a public ledger, and an annual reckoning. Criticism of the methodology is genuinely welcome — the papers have already been revised once after external review, in the direction that hurt us, and are better for it. Reach the editorial desk at francesco [at] freedman.co.

Colophon

Papers are written in LaTeX and rendered to vector pages, so they stay crisp at any zoom. The site is hand-built static HTML on Cloudflare — no framework, no build step. Readership is counted by an anonymous, humans-only beacon: no cookies, no IP addresses, no fingerprinting, and Do Not Track is respected. Cleaning the Glass data is used under subscription; only derived values are published. Subscribe by RSS — the email edition is coming.