Every team, one number
Ranked by TORQUE, our team rating. Torque is force applied through a lever: each player's GRAVITY score (how good he is per minute) applied through the minutes he is expected to play. 50 is a rotation of league-average players; one point is worth about 2.5 wins over a season. Projected wins are scaled so the league adds up to 1,230.
This is an update to rosters only: no games have been played since July, so every player's GRAVITY score is the July 2026 edition's. A final run follows after rosters are cut on October 19.
2026–27 rankings
- 1Oklahoma City ThunderOKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams · up 0.8 since July59.467 wins
- 2San Antonio SpursSASVictor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet · down 0.6 since July53.652 wins
- 3Denver NuggetsDENNikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon · down 0.2 since July53.351 wins
- 4Detroit PistonsDETCade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Ausar Thompson · up 2.2 since July, 10 places up53.351 wins
- 5Los Angeles LakersLALLuka Dončić, Austin Reaves, Sandro Mamukelashvili · up 0.4 since July, 2 places up52.950 wins
- 6Toronto RaptorsTORKawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley · up 2.2 since July, 9 places up52.750 wins
- 7Cleveland CavaliersCLEDonovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, James Harden · up 0.7 since July, 3 places up52.449 wins
- 8Philadelphia 76ersPHITyrese Maxey, LeBron James, Jaylen Brown · down 0.1 since July51.948 wins
- 9Portland Trail BlazersPORDeni Avdija, Damian Lillard, Donovan Clingan · up 0.4 since July, 2 places up51.647 wins
- 10Houston RocketsHOUAlperen Şengün, Kevin Durant, Amen Thompson · up 0.4 since July, 2 places up51.647 wins
- 11Boston CelticsBOSJayson Tatum, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White · down 1.4 since July, 6 places down51.446 wins
- 12New York KnicksNYKKarl-Anthony Towns, Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby · down 1.7 since July, 8 places down51.346 wins
- 13Orlando MagicORLPaolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane · down 0.2 since July51.045 wins
- 14Miami HeatMIAGiannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins · down 2.2 since July, 8 places down50.444 wins
- 15Minnesota TimberwolvesMINAnthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Rudy Gobert · down 1.7 since July, 6 places down50.043 wins
- 16Charlotte HornetsCHOKon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Grayson Allen · up 1.7 since July, 3 places up49.943 wins
- 17Golden State WarriorsGSWStephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porziņģis · down 0.3 since July, 1 place down49.742 wins
- 18Indiana PacersINDTyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Pascal Siakam · up 1.4 since July, 2 places up49.341 wins
- 19Phoenix SunsPHODevin Booker, Mark Williams, Miles Bridges · down 1.1 since July, 2 places down48.238 wins
- 20Atlanta HawksATLJalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu · up 1.0 since July, 2 places up47.737 wins
- 21Dallas MavericksDALCooper Flagg, Kyrie Irving, Daniel Gafford · up 0.4 since July47.536 wins
- 22Chicago BullsCHIJosh Giddey, Tre Jones, Norman Powell · down 0.1 since July, 1 place up46.233 wins
- 23Milwaukee BucksMILTyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Kevin Porter Jr. · no change since July46.233 wins
- 24New Orleans PelicansNOPZion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey · down 0.1 since July, 1 place up45.632 wins
- 25Utah JazzUTALauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr. · up 2.2 since July, 1 place up45.531 wins
- 26LA ClippersLACDarius Garland, Brandon Ingram, Rui Hachimura · down 3.6 since July, 8 places down44.729 wins
- 27Washington WizardsWASAnthony Davis, Trae Young, Alex Sarr · up 1.1 since July, 1 place up43.827 wins
- 28Memphis GrizzliesMEMTy Jerome, Cam Spencer, Isaiah Stewart · up 1.1 since July, 2 places up42.724 wins
- 29Brooklyn NetsBRKMichael Porter Jr., Julius Randle, Day'Ron Sharpe · up 0.4 since July42.624 wins
- 30Sacramento KingsSACDomantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, Malik Monk · down 0.6 since July, 3 places down42.424 wins
Top three contributors = expected minutes × quality above replacement level. Rookies are priced too, which the old method did not do.
Biggest risers
- +2.2Detroit Pistons#14 → #446 → 51 W
- +2.2Toronto Raptors#15 → #644 → 50 W
- +2.2Utah Jazz#26 → #2526 → 31 W
- +1.7Charlotte Hornets#19 → #1638 → 43 W
- +1.4Indiana Pacers#20 → #1838 → 41 W
Biggest fallers
- -3.6LA Clippers#18 → #2639 → 29 W
- -2.2Miami Heat#6 → #1450 → 44 W
- -1.7New York Knicks#4 → #1251 → 46 W
- -1.7Minnesota Timberwolves#9 → #1547 → 43 W
- -1.4Boston Celtics#5 → #1150 → 46 W
Both columns use TORQUE on both dates, so the change is the roster moves alone.
How TORQUE works
- 1Every player on the roster is priced. Veterans carry their GRAVITY projection. Rookies and players back from abroad have no NBA record, so they start at replacement level (what a team can sign for nothing) plus a small bonus for youth.
- 2Minutes are handed out like a real rotation: the best players get the most, the 13th man a few. Players who missed games last year are expected to miss some again, but not all of them.
- 3A team plays 240 minutes a night. If the roster's expected minutes run over, everyone shares the cut; any minutes left empty are filled at replacement level.
- 4A small bonus goes to teams whose value sits in their top three players: stars decide more games than depth.
Why we changed the team model
The July edition ranked teams by adding up GRAVITY projections, weighted by last season's minutes. It ignored rookies and returnees, and it squeezed every player's minutes by the same factor when a roster was deep, so signing bench players could lower a team's number. We built and tested 17 team models on 49 seasons of data: every constant was set on 1981–2010, then each model was scored on 2011–2026, seasons it was never tuned on, and checked by independent reviewers. TORQUE won. Blending in a team's own results from last season (margin, playoffs, luck) made every model worse on the unseen seasons: once the roster is priced, last season's record adds nothing.
| Model, 2011–2026 (never tuned on) | Order matches standings* | Wins off by |
|---|---|---|
| TORQUE | 0.736 | 6.7 |
| July method + rookies priced | 0.704 | 6.9 |
| July method (as published) | 0.700 | 6.9 |
| Last season's net rating | 0.587 | 7.7 |
| Last season's record | 0.588 | 7.8 |
*Rank correlation between the preseason order and the final standings, averaged over 16 seasons (1.0 = perfect order). TORQUE beat the July method in 12 of 16 seasons. The edge is real but modest: expect a slightly better order, not a different kind of ranking.
The July 2026 edition
Kept exactly as published, because forecast E1 is graded on it. It used the old method (Team GRAVITY): the expected force of one minute of a team's floor time, built from a fixed 240-minute game, with minutes nobody on the roster could cover priced at replacement force 35.0.
Two honesty notes from July. Unsigned is unsigned: free agents — restricted ones included — are nobody's minutes yet, so Cleveland is priced without Harden, Detroit without Duren, Sacramento without DeRozan. And one trade didn't exist yet: the agreed Leonard–Ingram swap was unconsummated while the league's investigation ran, so Kawhi is a Clipper here and Toronto keeps Ingram. Official rosters only.
| # | Team | Team GRAVITY | Starters | Bench | Top-3 share | Best player (force) | Fill min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder OKC | 55.1 | 70.3 | 43.5 | 58% | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (92.9) | 34.6 |
| 2 | New York Knicks NYK | 52.4 | 61.0 | 40.5 | 58% | Karl-Anthony Towns (69.9) | 0.0 |
| 3 | San Antonio Spurs SAS | 52.0 | 52.8 | 51.3 | 46% | Victor Wembanyama (87.9) | 0.0 |
| 4 | Denver Nuggets DEN | 51.5 | 65.3 | 38.3 | 75% | Nikola Jokić (97.8) | 32.4 |
| 5 | Boston Celtics BOS | 50.6 | 56.2 | 45.1 | 51% | Jayson Tatum (68.7) | 9.7 |
| 6 | Houston Rockets HOU | 50.6 | 57.3 | 41.8 | 60% | Alperen Şengün (62.2) | 0.0 |
| 7 | Philadelphia 76ers PHI | 50.4 | 57.5 | 43.3 | 53% | Tyrese Maxey (67.3) | 0.1 |
| 8 | Orlando Magic ORL | 50.3 | 54.4 | 45.9 | 48% | Franz Wagner (63.5) | 0.2 |
| 9 | Minnesota Timberwolves MIN | 50.2 | 57.6 | 40.5 | 58% | LaMelo Ball (69.1) | 20.0 |
| 10 | Detroit Pistons DET | 49.8 | 57.1 | 43.4 | 54% | Cade Cunningham (70.3) | 7.7 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Lakers LAL | 49.6 | 57.5 | 41.8 | 64% | Luka Dončić (83.0) | 7.8 |
| 12 | Miami Heat MIA | 48.8 | 49.9 | 47.6 | 61% | Giannis Antetokounmpo (88.8) | 30.2 |
| 13 | Toronto Raptors TOR | 48.8 | 53.5 | 44.1 | 53% | Scottie Barnes (65.8) | 2.7 |
| 14 | Cleveland Cavaliers CLE | 48.7 | 58.8 | 39.4 | 70% | Donovan Mitchell (68.1) | 46.6 |
| 15 | Charlotte Hornets CHO | 48.2 | 52.0 | 44.9 | 50% | Kon Knueppel (63.7) | 0.2 |
| 16 | Phoenix Suns PHO | 48.2 | 52.5 | 44.3 | 48% | Devin Booker (59.3) | 0.1 |
| 17 | Portland Trail Blazers POR | 48.0 | 53.4 | 42.3 | 52% | Deni Avdija (62.6) | 10.2 |
| 18 | Golden State Warriors GSW | 46.9 | 50.4 | 44.2 | 57% | Jimmy Butler (68.2) | 26.5 |
| 19 | Atlanta Hawks ATL | 46.6 | 55.6 | 39.1 | 55% | Jalen Johnson (63.2) | 0.0 |
| 20 | LA Clippers LAC | 45.6 | 53.1 | 38.9 | 61% | Kawhi Leonard (77.3) | 30.5 |
| 21 | New Orleans Pelicans NOP | 45.4 | 52.2 | 38.1 | 61% | Zion Williamson (65.3) | 2.3 |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls CHI | 45.0 | 50.2 | 40.6 | 52% | Josh Giddey (59.5) | 6.8 |
| 23 | Indiana Pacers IND | 45.0 | 49.1 | 41.7 | 51% | Ivica Zubac (57.2) | 0.0 |
| 24 | Milwaukee Bucks MIL | 45.0 | 47.1 | 43.6 | 43% | Tyler Herro (59.0) | 0.1 |
| 25 | Dallas Mavericks DAL | 44.8 | 47.1 | 42.9 | 49% | Cooper Flagg (58.0) | 0.0 |
| 26 | Utah Jazz UTA | 44.6 | 46.2 | 43.6 | 40% | Lauri Markkanen (58.5) | 0.0 |
| 27 | Memphis Grizzlies MEM | 42.9 | 45.7 | 41.5 | 35% | Cameron Boozer (53.6) | 0.0 |
| 28 | Brooklyn Nets BRK | 41.8 | 49.0 | 37.1 | 60% | Michael Porter Jr. (57.9) | 0.0 |
| 29 | Washington Wizards WAS | 41.8 | 41.6 | 41.9 | 44% | AJ Dybantsa (53.4) | 0.2 |
| 30 | Sacramento Kings SAC | 41.3 | 43.6 | 39.4 | 52% | Domantas Sabonis (63.4) | 33.8 |
ρ ≥ 0.60 = win · 0.50–0.60 = near miss · below 0.50 = miss. Scored in Forecast Audit №1, July 2027, on this July table.