The Gravity Report
THE 644
1 JOKIĆ 97.8 · 2 GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER 92.9 · 3 WEMBANYAMA 85.7 · 4 ANTETOKOUNMPO 83.9 · 5 DONČIĆ 83.0 · 6 LEONARD 77.3 · 7 CUNNINGHAM 70.3 · 8 TOWNS 69.3 · 9 MITCHELL 68.1 · 10 MAXEY 67.3 · 11 BALL 66.8 · 12 HOLMGREN 66.6 · 13 CURRY 66.5 · 14 DUREN 65.9 · 15 BARNES 65.8
Deep Dive №5 · Preseason 2026–27

Chasing Seven

By our model, Jokić has been the best player in the league for six straight years. One more would tie Michael Jordan's record.
Francesco Freedman · The Gravity Report · the GRAVITY player-value model · published October 17, 2026 · forecasts score April and July 2027
Not a research paper. This is an article, typeset in LaTeX: independent analysis, not peer reviewed.
v1 — methodology and figures verified against public sources as of October 17, 2026. This article will be revised.
Abstract. We ran every NBA season since 1977–78 through GRAVITY Historical to find who was the best player in the league each year. Statistically, 16 different players have had that title across 49 seasons. Michael Jordan held it for seven years in a row, from the 1986–87 season all the way until 1992–93, the longest run on record. By our metrics, Nikola Jokić has now held it for six seasons, and these six were played at a higher level than Jordan's seven or LeBron's six. This is definitely not the consensus view. The MVP voters have only agreed with 24 of our 49 number ones, and Jokić has lost three of his six, partly to plain voter fatigue. A seventh straight year of greatness from Jokić would tie Jordan's record in our data, and we give it about a 55% chance of happening.

What's in the article

  • The 49 number ones: every season since 1977–78 run through GRAVITY Historical. Sixteen players have been number one; Jordan nine times, LeBron seven, Jokić six, Bird and Shaq four each.
  • The runs: Jordan's seven straight is the longest and the most dominant. Jokić's six is statistically the highest: an average impact of +3.36, above Jordan's +3.17 and LeBron's +3.19.
  • The voters: the MVP went to our number one in 24 of 49 seasons. Jordan lost five of nine. Jokić has lost three of six, partly to voter fatigue. That is normal, not a robbery.
  • The seventh year: a number one with a margin this thin kept the spot 7 times in 11. If Jokić repeats his season he scores 100.7; SGA would have to play like Jokić did to reach 100.
Page 2 of the article: every season's number one since 1977–78, with age, impact, margin, the MVP winner and where the number one ranked the next year.
The 49 number ones (p. 2). Every season's number one by GRAVITY Historical, the MVP that year, and where he ranked the next season.
Page 3 of the article: every run of three or more straight seasons at number one, and a chart of the number one's impact every season since 1977–78.
The runs (p. 3). Jordan's seven, LeBron's six, Jokić's six. Of the ten highest single seasons on the chart, four are Jokić's.
Page 4 of the article: the base rates for a number one keeping his spot, and the July 2027 scores under each scenario for Jokić, SGA and Wembanyama.
The seventh year (p. 4). The base rates, and what Jokić, SGA and Wembanyama score next July under each scenario.

The forecast

Nikola Jokić ranks #1 in The 644, July 2027 edition.
55%
#1 = Win · #2 = Near miss (graded as a miss) · #3 or below = Miss. Our own ranking; we keep one bet on it each article so the model gets graded too.
Nikola Jokić leads the NBA in 2026–27 Box Plus/Minus among players with 1,500+ regular-season minutes.
60%
Basketball Reference, final regular-season table.
Nikola Jokić wins the 2026–27 MVP award.
25%
NBA's official announcement.

The thin line marks 50%, a coin flip. External predictions are graded by April 30, 2027 (BPM) and June 30, 2027 (MVP). Registered October 17, 2026, before the October 18 freeze; scored by Brier score in the Forecast Ledger.

Read the full article (PDF, 5 pp) LaTeX source The Forecast Ledger

Cite this article

Freedman, F. (2026). "Chasing Seven: By Our Model, Jokić Has Been the Best Player in the League for Six Straight Years." The Gravity Report, GRAVITY Deep Dive No. 5, v1.
https://thegravityreport.com/notes/jokic/