The 2026–27 Gravity Report Predictions
Every call we make below gets a probability with it, and every probability goes into the Forecast Ledger, where it will get scored after the season. When a sportsbook has a price, we quote it with the book and the date, and we say how far away we are from it.
All of our team calls now come from our new model, TORQUE, which we introduced on October 14.1 TORQUE projects a win total for every team, and it misses by an average of about 7 wins. Vegas usually beats a model, so on our team calls we didn't just take TORQUE's number. We weight each prediction 40% on what TORQUE says and 60% on what Vegas says. That means when TORQUE and Vegas agree on a team, there's nothing to call: our number would just land on the betting line. So we only made calls where the two disagree, because that's where our model thinks it sees something the market doesn't. A dagger (†) marks a call whose roster situation is not settled.
The title
TORQUE puts the Thunder first with a score of 59.4, 5.8 points clear of the next team, which projects them at 67 wins for the year. No other team is projected above 52 wins. That's a massive gap.1 DraftKings prices them even with San Antonio at +270, an implied 27% chance.2 Our simulation of the season gives them a 44% chance of winning it all, so by combining our two numbers, we put our final prediction at 34%.
This is the most likely Finals matchup predicted by TORQUE. The Pistons are the highest-rated team in the East at 53.3, which comes out to 51 projected wins.1 The betting market doesn't see it that way. BetMGM has Detroit at +900 to win the East (tied for fourth in the conference) and the Thunder at +145 in the West, which multiply to about a 4% chance.3,4 Our simulation gives it a 10% chance, which brings our final prediction to 6%.
The awards
Jokić has led the league in Box Plus/Minus and value over replacement player for six straight seasons, and he posted a BPM of 14.2 in 2025–26.6 DraftKings puts him third at +500, an implied 17%, behind Victor Wembanyama (+210) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+350).7 Our Jokić Deep Dive gives him a 55% chance to stay our number one this year.
Wembanyama led the league in defensive BPM at 4.2 in 2025–26.6 BetMGM lists him at −350, an implied 78% to win the award. Chet Holmgren is second at +1200.8 Our prediction sits below the market because award eligibility requires 65 games, and Wembanyama only played 64 last season.9
Our rookie model ranks him first among all the 2026 draftees and #84 of all 644 players in the league, ahead of AJ Dybantsa at #88 and Darryn Peterson at #118.10 Because Memphis traded Ja Morant to Portland, Boozer projects as the Grizzlies' first option from day one.11,12 DraftKings has him at +325, behind Caleb Wilson at +240.13
Harper graded in the 68th percentile of the league as a 19-year-old rookie, a better rookie season by GRAVITY Historical than Cooper Flagg's.14 He then played 615 playoff minutes with a 3.7 playoff BPM on a Finals team.15 We think his breakout season looks like a Box Plus/Minus of 3.0 or higher in 1,500 minutes, up from 1.4 last year. The risk is that San Antonio's backcourt minutes are crowded.
The Hornets traded LaMelo Ball to Minnesota in June, which leaves Miller as their first option.16 His per-minute value has already risen two straight years, from the 14th percentile to the 45th, and now the 71st.14 BetMGM also lists him as the favorite for this award at +800, an implied 11%.17
OKC sent out three rotation wings for second-round picks this summer, which opens up bench minutes for Mitchell.18 He sits at #78 in The 644 and played 317 playoff minutes last season.10 FanDuel lists him second at +800, behind Harper.19 The issue is that if he starts most of his games, he becomes ineligible.
We match this pick up with our surprise team below. BetMGM lists him as a co-favorite at +900, an implied 10%.20 Voters usually reward the coach whose team beats expectations, and TORQUE has Toronto beating the market by more than any other team in the league.
Surprise and disappointment
TORQUE ranks Toronto 6th in the league at 52.7, about 50 projected wins. The market ranks them 13th, with a win total of 46.5.1,5 There isn't another team in the league whose TORQUE rank sits further above its market rank. The Raptors also gained 2.2 TORQUE points since July, tied for the biggest jump in the league, because the Kawhi trade finally went through. A mere 47 wins would mean beating last season's 46.21
Atlanta is the mirror image of Toronto. TORQUE ranks the Hawks 20th with a score of 47.7, or about 37 projected wins. The market ranks them 15th, with a win total of 43.5.1,5 No team's TORQUE rank sits further below its market rank. 40 or fewer wins would mean missing that line by at least three and a half games.
Six win totals
These are the six teams where TORQUE and the betting lines are the farthest apart. All lines are BetMGM's as of October 19.5
The biggest gap of the six. TORQUE projects 33 wins, 7.6 above the line, and ranks the Bucks 23rd in the league. The market has them all the way down at 28th.1
TORQUE projects 42 wins, which is 5.5 above the line, and ranks the Warriors 17th. The market has them four spots lower, at 21st.1
TORQUE projects 47 wins and ranks the Blazers 9th in the league. The market has them eight spots lower, at 17th.1 Portland added Ja Morant to their roster this summer.11
TORQUE really likes the Spurs. It has them second in the league at 53.6, but it doesn't see them as a 60-win team. It projects 52 wins, which is 7.6 below where Vegas has them.1 This is the call we expect everybody to argue with, since San Antonio beat OKC in seven games in the Western Conference Finals.22
TORQUE projects Washington for just 27 wins, and it has them as the 27th-best team, even with Trae Young re-signed and AJ Dybantsa added to the roster.1 Anthony Davis got there in February and still hasn't played for Washington. His health is their biggest question mark.24
TORQUE projects them for 31 wins, 6.2 below the line. Utah only won 22 games last season and then lost Walker Kessler to the Lakers.21,23 They did add the second pick in the draft, Darryn Peterson.
Wildcards
Kyrie Irving missed all of last season after tearing his ACL, but he came to camp this year with no restrictions. Trade talk has been around him for a while, and it has followed him into a new era in Dallas under Dusty May.25,26
He averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists in 2025–26.27 The assists have the least room to fall, but after seeing that behind-the-back pass in the preseason, we wouldn't be shocked to see him do it again.
In the last four seasons, he played 55, 71, 70, and 60 games, and he turns 42 in December.14,28
How these are graded
Award calls resolve on the NBA's announcements. The title and Finals calls resolve on the 2027 Finals. Win totals, the games call and the triple-double call resolve on Basketball Reference's final regular-season tables. The trade call resolves on the NBA transaction log at the deadline.
Revision note (October 20, before tip-off)
These calls were first registered on September 29, when our team view came from the July edition of The 30. On October 20, before the first game, we re-ran every team call through TORQUE. Ten calls changed. The title call moved from 25% to 34%. The Finals call, Coach of the Year, the surprise and disappointment teams, and all six win totals were replaced, because TORQUE disagrees with the market in different places than the July method did. The award calls that don't depend on the team model (MVP, Defensive Player, Rookie, Breakout, Most Improved, Sixth Man) and the three wildcards are unchanged. Every original call and probability stays readable in the Forecast Ledger's amendment log.
Registered Oct 20, 2026. Every call is scored by Brier score in the Forecast Ledger. An article, not a research paper.